How Litro estimates the Price Outlook
The Price Outlook indicates whether local price pressure appears to be rising, falling, or stable over the next 24 to 48 hours. It compares recent price movement in a region or city with available market indicators. It does not predict the exact price at a station.
Information available at the time
Litro uses only information that was genuinely available when an outlook was produced. A correction published later is not treated as though it had been known earlier. Current external sources are the U.S. Energy Information Administration for a gasoline-market indicator and the Bank of Canada for USD/CAD.
A local, cautious signal
The signal requires enough recent, comparable station prices. It considers the size and consistency of movement, coverage, and variability. Litro withholds the signal when data is too sparse, stale, inconsistent, or the model has not passed enough evaluation.
You may see “insufficient data,” “stale,” “unavailable,” or “signal withheld.” “Stable” means no sufficiently strong directional move was detected. “Uncertain” means the evidence is not consistent enough.
Why percentages may be absent
A model score is not automatically a trustworthy probability. Litro displays percentages or ranges only when independent chronological testing shows adequate calibration. A qualitative outlook can therefore be available without a number.
Your privacy
The model operates on a region or city, never your precise location. Litro does not send your fuel level, vehicle, routes, fill-up intent, or planned litres to the model. If the app estimates the possible impact on a fill-up, that calculation stays on your device.
Limitations
Local coverage, source publication schedules, taxes, holidays, supply disruptions, and unusual market shifts can reduce reliability. Litro does not reliably know how much fuel is in your vehicle.
Litro does not guarantee future prices and never tells you to wait. The signal is one more piece of information for comparing options if you already plan to fill up.
Sources
Sources are acknowledged for provenance. They do not endorse Litro or its outlooks.